@article{oai:otsuma.repo.nii.ac.jp:00000706,
 author = {伊藤, 朋恭 and 片山, 紗織 and 伊藤, 奈緒},
 journal = {大妻女子大学紀要. 社会情報系, 社会情報学研究, Otsuma journal of social information studies},
 month = {},
 note = {P(論文), 大学教育の場において地球環境問題の本質を理解し定量的に把握できる能力を育成する手段として,コンピュータによるシミュレーションが有益であるとの視点から,地球環境問題として最も関心の高い温暖化をとりあげ,温室効果気体による地表温度の変化を試算する簡便な方法を提案した。温室効果気体は他の気体の影響を受けないで,個々の寿命に応じて濃度が減衰すると考え,排出量をもとに濃度を算出し,さらに放射強制力を求めて温度変化を試算するやり方である。その結果,例えば今後100年間でさらに温度は1.5K上昇することなどが予測でき,排出量と共に寿命の長さが温暖化に対して大きな影響をもつことを示すことができた。本法は簡便ではあるが,正確さを犠牲にしている面も多い。濃度変化を算出するときにその気体の循環システム全体を考慮するとか,温度上昇により雲量が増加するなど温室効果の二次的効果も含めるなどすることにより,さらに精度の高いシミュレーションが可能であろうが,それに伴う労力の増加はかなり大きいであろう。, Computer simulation is an effective technique for understanding the essence of atmospheric environmental problems and for increasing the ability quantitatively treating those phenomena in the education of information fields. As one of its application, we propose a simple simulation procedure to predict changes in global surface temperature due to greenhouse gases which is the most important environmental problem. This method is based on an idea that decreasing concentrations of each greenhouse gas proceeds without any influence of other gases and depends only on its specific lifetime. Concentration estimated from emission scenarios for each gas is used to evaluate radiative forcing and to predict temperature changes on the global surface. Typical results obtained have predicted that temperature rises further by 1.5 K after 100 years and is affected by not only emission amounts but also the lifetime of each gas. The procedure proposed here is very simple, but it is also apparent that there are many problems as to its accuracy. For example, changes in concentration should be calculated by considering global circulating system of the gas, and secondary influences caused by greenhouse effects should be included to estimate global warming. Modification of the present procedure by adding these factors will lead to results with higher accuracy levels, but at the same time it needs very complicated time and effort.},
 pages = {59--73},
 title = {シミュレーション的手法による大気環境情報教育 : 温室効果気体による地球温暖化の予測},
 volume = {13},
 year = {2004}
}